Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Sleepers, breakouts, busts by model that predicted Rodon’s struggles

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Jackson Holiday, a 20-year-old middle infielder with the Baltimore Orioles organization, is the No. 1 prospect in baseball. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft made his way through every level of the Baltimore minor league system last season, finishing his final 18 games in Triple-A. Holiday, the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holiday, is expected to make his MLB debut at some point this season, which leaves the question for Fantasy baseball players: Do you select him in 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts?

Elly De La Cruz was the top prospect in baseball last season and quickly proved to be an asset for Fantasy baseball lineups, so prospects are certainly worth rostering in Fantasy baseball. A strong set of 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings can help you figure out when it is right to select someone like Holiday and prepare you for upcoming drafts by identifying the 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts that you need to know. Before going on the clock in any 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts, be sure to see the Fantasy baseball rankings 2024 and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. The team at SportsLine was all over Rodon as a Fantasy bust from the start after he signed a six-year, $162 million contract in the offseason. Rodon posted a 27-13 record with a 2.67 ERA and 422 strikeouts over 310 2/3 innings in 2021 and 2022, but the model predicted he’d finish well below his ADP of 76.88. The result: Rodon made only 14 starts and went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA and anybody who followed SportsLine’s advice avoided a major headache.

Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.

Any time more MLB news comes out about trades, signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers

One of the 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe. The 29-year-old had 21 home runs, 68 RBI and 50 runs scored with a .771 OPS over 109 games last season. It was a down season for Lowe, who had 39 home runs, 99 RBI and 97 runs scored over 149 games in 2021 before an injury-plagued 2022 resulted in him playing in just 65 contests.

The model projects a bounce-back year from Lowe as he returns closer to his career averages. The second baseman has a .818 career OPS, and only four qualified second basemen had an OPS greater than that mark last season. Lowe, a left-handed hitter, is projected to hit near the top of a solid Tampa Bay lineup when facing right-handed pitching and he has a career .847 OPS against RHP. Lowe’s hard-hit rate was better than 84% of the league with an average exit velocity greater than 83% of the league last season, signaling some bad luck factored into Lowe’s statistics. See more Fantasy baseball sleepers at SportsLine.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball breakouts

One of the 2024 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is jumping on: Athletics second baseman Zack Gelof. The 24-year-old had 14 home runs, 32 RBI, 40 runs scored and 14 stolen bases over 69 games in his rookie season. Gelof had a slash line of .267/.377/.504 for an OPS of .840 as his OPS was higher than top second basemen such as Marcus Semien, Brandon Drury and Gleyber Torres last year.

Gelof was a second-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft before quickly making his way to the Oakland major league roster. Gelof had 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases in Triple-A last season, totaling 26 home runs, 76 RBI, 24 stolen bases and 100 runs scored between the majors and minor leagues in 2023. He also had a barrel rate of 11% last season, nearly twice the MLB average of 6.9%, and he had the third-highest isolated power (.237) and line drive percentage (25.5%) among rookies with at least 300 plate appearances last year. He’s projected to hit near the top of the Athletics’ lineup and his metrics showcase Gelof could finish as one of the top second basemen in Fantasy baseball and could drastically outperform his ADP. See more Fantasy baseball breakouts at SportsLine.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts 

As for players to avoid, the model has pinpointed Rockies outfielder Nolan Jones as one of its biggest 2024 Fantasy baseball busts. The 25-year-old had 20 home runs, 62 RBI, 60 runs scored and 20 stolen bases over 106 games with the Rockies in his first full MLB season. He had a slash line of .297/.389/.542 for an OPS of .931 and finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

A look beyond just the numbers, however, shows an element of fortunate luck in Jones’ success last year. His xBA (expected batting average) was nearly 50 points lower at .249, finding some good luck for some of those hits. His hard-hit rate was 41.3%, just above the average in baseball last season. While there are parts of his game to like from his rookie campaign, Jones is being selected roughly 100 picks higher in ADP than players he shares a tier with in the model’s projections. The model projects Fantasy baseball players are overreacting to his rookie season and the fact he plays at Coors Field, ultimately projecting Jones as a 2024 Fantasy baseball bust. See more Fantasy baseball busts at SportsLine.

How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings

SportsLine’s model is also high on a surprising starting pitcher who bounces back in the top 10 of its positional rankings. This player is going outside the top 100 picks but is projected to outperform starters going in the top 35 like Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb and Aaron Nola. This pick could be the difference between winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

So which 2024 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Carlos Rodon’s disappointing season, and find out.