Caitlin Clark scoring record tracker: Iowa star’s path to the NCAA record

Caitlin Clark etched her name in the women’s college basketball history books earlier this season when she scored her 3,000th career point. Now, Iowa’s superstar guard has her sights set on an even bigger record.

Clark, who has put up eye-popping scoring numbers since her freshman season at Iowa in 2020-21, is closing in on Kelsey Plum’s Division I women’s scoring record. She put up another high-scoring performance against Maryland on Saturday, scoring 38 points to inch closer to Plum’s mark. Clark now has 3,462 career points, trailing Plum’s mark of 3,527 by 65, with several games of her senior season remaining. 

Clark does have an extra year of eligibility left due to the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. If she did exercise the option to return to Iowa next season, Clark would almost certainly surpass the former Washington star’s career scoring mark.

But if this is Clark’s last year playing college basketball, she has seven regular-season games remaining, plus the Big Ten Tournament and likely NCAA Tournament games to reach 3,527 points. 

So, let’s take a look at how many points Clark would need to average per game in order to break Plum’s mark and how quickly she can get there (assuming she plays every game). 

How many points per game does Clark need to score in order to surpass Plum’s mark by the end of the regular season?

If Clark hopes to break Plum’s record and get it behind her by the time the 2024 Big Ten Tournament starts, she must average 9.5 points per game the rest of the way. 

Clark has proven that isn’t a high mark for her to clear. She’s scoring 32.4 points per game this season, which is over five points per game more than the second-leading scorer in Division I. She’s also averaging 28.1 points per game over her career.

How many points per game does Clark need to score in order to surpass Plum’s mark prior to the NCAA Tournament?

It depends on conference tournament seeding. 

Iowa currently is at the top of the Big Ten standings. If it earns one of the top four seeds going into the conference tournament — almost a lock — and makes it to the finals, Clark would need to average 6.6 points per game to break Plum’s mark.

If Iowa were a top-four seed and knocked out in the semifinals, Clark would need to average 7.4 points per game in order to break Plum’s mark prior to the NCAA Tournament. If Iowa lost in the quarterfinals, Clark would need to average 8.3 to break Plum’s mark.

Iowa could technically play four games in the Big Ten Tournament. If that were to happen, Clark would need to score six points per game to break Plum’s mark prior to the Big Dance. But it’s highly unlikely that Iowa wouldn’t finish in the top eight of the Big Ten regular-season standings. Iowa has finished in the top five of the conference’s regular-season standings in each season since Clark arrived in 2020-21. 

Beyond the Big Ten Tournament, it’s obviously unclear how long Iowa’s season will last. The Hawkeyes made the title game last season, losing to LSU. If Iowa made it to the Big Ten Tournament title game (as a top-four seed) and the NCAA title game, Clark would only need to average 4.2 points per game to break Plum’s career mark. 

Suffice to say, barring an injury or any unforeseen circumstances, Clark is on pace to break Plum’s record, which leads us to our next question.

When will Clark break Plum’s record?

Clark appears to be on track to break Plum’s record in the coming weeks, if not sooner. 

If she keeps at her current pace of 32.4 PPG this season, Clark would break Plum’s record at some point during Iowa’s home game against Michigan on Feb. 15, doing it with four games to spare in the regular season. If she scores at her career pace of 28.1 PPG for the rest of the season, Clark would break Plum’s mark by that game against Michigan. 

Iowa doesn’t have any long stretches of playing at home or on the road during conference play. The Hawkeyes alternate playing on the road and at home in each of their final eight games of the season. Iowa closes out the regular season at home against Ohio State on March 3 (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).

How much longer until Clark surpasses other historic scoring marks?

Clark is already second on the all-time scoring list, surpassing former Ohio State star Kelsey Mitchell’s mark of 3,402 points to also become the leading scorer in Big Ten history.

Charting Clark’s path and Iowa’s schedule for the rest of the regular season

Iowa has seven regular-season games remaining with all of them coming in conference play. Clark has averaged 28.3 PPG in conference play over her career and has averaged 33.8 PPG against Big Ten opponents so far this season.

Here’s a look at Iowa’s remaining schedule, plus how many points per game Clark averages against each team and how many points per game she needs to score in order to break Plum’s record.

Feb. 8: Penn State — 25.5 points vs. Penn State in her career.
Feb. 11: at Nebraska — 34.8 points per game vs. Nebraska in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 33 points per game in the next two games (1 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).
Feb. 15: Michigan — 34.8 points per game vs. Michigan in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 22 points per game in the next three games.
Feb. 22: at Indiana — 28.3 points per game vs. Indiana in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 16.5 points per game in the next four games.
Feb. 25: Illinois — 23.7 points per game vs. Illinois in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 13.2 points per game in the next five games (1 p.m. ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app).
Feb. 28: at Minnesota — 32.2 PPG vs. Minnesota in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 11 points per game in the next six games.
March 3: Ohio State — 31.6 PPG vs. Ohio State in her career, and would break the record by the end of this game if she scores 9.4 points per game in the next eight games (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).

Isn’t Clark one of the nation’s top passers as well?

Indeed, she is! Clark’s 7.9 assists per game this season is the best mark in women’s college basketball. Yet, it’s also her fewest per game since her freshman season, posting at least eight assists per game in each of the last two years. 

Entering the home stretch of conference play, Clark’s 980 career assists rank eighth all-time among Division I women’s players. Suzie McConnell’s record of 1,307 assists is likely out of reach for Clark, but if she continues her season pace of 7.9 assists per game or puts up her career pace (8.0) for the rest of the regular season, she’ll be sixth all-time in assists by the start of the Big Ten Tournament, approaching over 1,030 career assists. 

At the pace she’s at, Clark would be the first player in women’s college basketball history to rank in the top six all–time in points and assists. She would also be 52 assists away from entering the top five and 55 assists away from entering the top four if she averages her career assists per game mark for the rest of the regular season.

---

---