Posted by Bear Bets is back!
FOX Sports’ digital gambling show returned this week to discuss the Final Four of the women’s college basketball tournament.
The Group Chat also reconvened, as Chris “The Bear” Fallica was joined by Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill to discuss the women’s NCAA Tournament and which bets they like the most this week.
Let’s get right into their bets!
What are your initial thoughts on Iowa (-2.5) against UConn?
The Bear: UConn bettors might be on the right side
“It seems like Iowa -2.5 is a number where they’re kind of saying, ‘We’ll take all the Iowa money we want.’ Obviously, that did not work out well in the Elite Eight against LSU because that number was bet up from Iowa -1.5 to Iowa -2.5. It was never in doubt. But it seems like if you like UConn, you might be on the right side with where that number is opening.”
Hill: Lean Iowa to win
“I always think with Iowa, you’re paying a tax because Caitlin Clark is so much fun to watch, she’s so fun to root for. The things that are fun to bet on, you get a tax. Sometimes, it’s better to go boring.
“But UConn’s as public as it gets. People think women’s hoops and they think UConn. Does that offset each other? I don’t know. But I think it’s hard to go against Clark and Iowa wins.”
Sammy P: The line movement has me nervous as someone with an Iowa futures bet
“I said before the tournament that the bet to make was Iowa 5-to-1 to win the women’s title because it’s fun to root for Caitlin Clark. When I saw this number open, though, against UConn, I went, ‘Oof, I’m probably in trouble here.’ To open America’s team at only -3 and see it get whacked right away to -2.5, it has me nervous. At the same time, like I can’t really hedge it. Like, I guess I could take UConn plus the points. But I don’t make bets to hedge.”
Speaking of Caitlin Clark, do you have any prop bets on her in this matchup?
Hill: Maybe take her point total Under
“Don’t you have to just jack the Caitlin Clark number a couple points higher than the number says it should be? Does that give you enough wiggle room where you can have the guts to go Under? Knowing Geno Auriemma, he’s an old school, Bill Belichick sort of guy and his thing is, ‘I’m not gonna let the other team’s best player beat me. I’m gonna make him play left–handed.'”
Sammy P: Lean Clark Over assists
“If you don’t wanna sweat the Caitlin Clark point prop bet Under, which is probably going to open at like 29.5 or 30, how about the Caitlin Clark assist prop Over? That’s what I want. She’s been such a good facilitator her whole career. And I think when a lot of people and a lot of casual betters jump into the market, they see the logo 3s and these big shots, and they’re like, ‘Oh, she’ll score 30.'”
In the other matchup, North Carolina State (+11.5) is trying to take down undefeated South Carolina. Is there a play you like here?
The Bear: Lean NC State +11
“South Carolina has let teams back in games the last couple of rounds. They were up 20 and the next thing you know, they’re only up by four in the fourth quarter. That’s dangerous because Stanford was up double digits in the third quarter against NC State. All of a sudden, NC State went out in the third quarter from 10 down to 12 up.
“I can see NC State hanging around in there.”
Looking ahead to the final, if the two No. 1 seeds (South Carolina and Iowa) win on Friday, what might you look for there?
Hill: Try to find value in South Carolina
“I think this will probably be a South Carolina-Iowa title game. I could see a scenario where Iowa gets bet a lot of the public money. People want to bet on Clark and you might get a cheap South Carolina price, especially on the moneyline.”
Follow along with FOX Sports for the latest news on the NCAA Tournament and other sports.
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